Market Overview: Thursday, By Shubh Varma, CEO Hyblock Capital g2914
The macro backdrop for Bitcoin has entered a new regime as 30-year U.S. Treasury yields break decisively above 5%. This shift signals an abandonment of purely deficit-financed rate cuts, favoring growth-oriented monetary and fiscal stimulus. Against this backdrop, central banks will likely deploy more liquidity through asset purchases, funding facilities, or direct fiscal to sustain borrowing costs and economic expansion. In such an environment, liquid risk assets like Bitcoin stand to benefit disproportionately, making the path to fresh all-time highs clear and compelling.
At the heart of this bullish thesis lies an abundance of both ive and active liquidity. Our “Combined Books” metric, summing bids and asks within 10% of the spot price, now sits in the 98th percentile over the last 90 days, indicating record levels of resting orders clustered around current levels. Similarly, total open interest across major exchanges is in the 96th percentile, revealing a substantial buildup of positions that can fuel swift squeezes on a decisive breakout or breakdown. These elevated metrics underscore the market’s readiness to accelerate in the direction of the dominant flow.
From a technical perspective, the most reliable band lies between $101k and $102.5k, where both Binance and Bybit have repeatedly seen heavy open interest entries that trap shorts and attract fresh longs. Immediate resistance resides at $105k–$106k on Binance (and a clear cap at $106k on Bybit).
A sustained push above these levels, especially into the $107k–$108k liquidity zones, would likely flip this zone into future and set the stage for a momentum-driven rally.
Flow-based signals help refine entries and manage risk. When anchored cumulative volume delta (CVD) from the UTC open exceeds +250 million while retail longs are below 35%, pullbacks tend to follow. Conversely, CVD readings below –500 million with retail longs above 45% have historically marked strong bullish reversals.
Current readings point toward sideways chop in the near term, making a dip into the $101k–$102k region an attractive risk/reward long opportunity, while a clean breach of $106k on heavy buying could ignite the next leg up. Until either flow condition resolves, traders should watch these liquidity bands and CVD thresholds for the next directional cue.
