London, 22 May 2025: Howden, the global insurance intermediary group, today releases its new credit and political risk insurance (RI) report, Opportunity in flux. Intensifying geopolitical rivalries, policy uncertainty and competition for critical minerals are reshaping the risk landscape as well as driving demand for protection.
Research in the report finds that new demand for political risk insurance is up by a third due to considerable uncertainty around the geopolitical and macroeconomic environment. Amid the softening of the broader insurance cycle, Howden’s report argues that now is the time to draw in additional new entrants and for existing RI carriers to accelerate ventures into new asset classes and territories.
Market opportunity
With an aggregated base of $50 billion1, according to Howden’s research, the RI and surety market sures the size of many other specialty insurance markets, including marine and energy.
The series of economic and geopolitical shocks in recent years has done little to hold back the RI market’s performance: it consistently delivers healthy net combined ratios, with trade credit in the range of 70-80%, which sits at the top end of the broader RI market. These results rival the best underwriting in the market, and it is therefore equipped with the skills and expertise for sustainable expansion.
While the market has performed strongly, growth has not developed at the pace of other business lines, including property and cyber. There is room for a greater growth rate in today’s world; RI presents a compelling case from both a buyer and capacity provider perspective in ing businesses to invest and trade through heightened volatility whilst delivering market-leading underwriting results.
Driving economic growth
The report identifies some of the less penetrated asset classes ready for expansion that offer a strong underwriting opportunity for the market to drive economic growth. This will provide buyers with the certainty they need to expand into new territories and grow their portfolios in a new world order.
Matthew Strong, Deputy CEO, Howden CAP and Head of Credit and Political Risk, comments: “The RI market’s outstanding long term performance is testament to the deep sector expertise that pervades the value-chain. With demand for RI protection rising, now is the time for the market to step up even further. This will enhance global economic growth by increasing commitments and innovating, as well as providing businesses, lenders and public sector entities around the globe with the certainty they need to trade and invest with confidence.”
Phil Bonner, Managing Director, Global Specialty Treaty, Howden Re adds: “Opportunity is the key takeaway to emerge from our report. Yes, risk is up in a highly fractured world, but providing protection to help clients trade and invest through such uncertainty is precisely why RI exists. Our market does this in a way no other can whilst achieving exceptional performance, as demonstrated by underwriting results that rival any other product line of insurance. As demand for protection rises in response to global instability, our call to action for the market is to not only provide adequate supply but to also offer underwriting flexibility and imagination that keep up with clients’ changing needs.”